The new figures are forecasts, not measured household bills
EIA's September 9 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts the US residential electricity price at 18.2 cents per kilowatthour in 2026 and 18.6 cents in 2027. Its table shows 17.3 cents for 2025. That implies a forecast increase of about 5.2% from 2025 to 2026 and about 2.2% from 2026 to 2027 when calculated from the rounded annual figures. Those percentages are CoolCompare calculations from EIA's published values, not separate EIA forecasts.
EIA completed the forecast on September 3 and says the model does not specifically account for market events after that date. The figures are national annual averages. They do not identify a serving utility, retail plan, fixed customer charge, time-of-use period, tax or household consumption. The amount on an individual bill may be above or below the forecast benchmark, and a future forecast can change as EIA updates its assumptions.
Record national demand does not equal the same increase for every home
The outlook forecasts US electricity sales of 4,135 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,211 billion kWh in 2027, both record levels in EIA's forecast. EIA attributes the growth primarily to data-center development and increased manufacturing activity in the commercial and industrial sectors. Commercial sales account for most of the forecast increase in both years; that distinction matters before turning a national demand headline into a residential claim.
Higher system demand can affect markets and long-term infrastructure needs, but the outlook does not say that every household will use more electricity, face the same percentage price change or experience an outage. Household use depends on weather, home size and envelope, equipment, controls, occupancy and other loads. Retail price also depends on the local utility or plan. Use official system and utility channels for current grid conditions rather than treating an annual forecast as a live alert.
Use 18.2¢ as one scenario—not the answer
For a simple planning illustration, 1,000 kWh multiplied by 18.2 cents equals $182 before any difference between the EIA average-revenue measure and the structure of a real bill. At 18.6 cents, the same mechanical calculation is $186. The $4 difference is useful for checking arithmetic only; it is not a prediction of a monthly bill because actual usage and charges vary.
Start with the home's most recent 12 months of bills. Record billing days, kWh and total paid, then calculate an all-in amount per kWh for each period. Compare the same season year over year and note plan changes. Run low, middle and high rate scenarios for a heat pump, air conditioner, EV or water heater rather than building a purchase decision around one national number. Keep the national forecast labeled separately from the household's measured history.
Require HVAC savings claims to survive more than one rate
When a contractor or product estimate claims annual savings, ask for the equipment input, operating hours, weather assumption, efficiency, existing-system baseline and electricity rate. Recalculate the result with the actual household rate and a range around it. A higher assumed rate makes each avoided kWh look more valuable, but it also raises the operating cost of every electric load. That is why a rate forecast alone cannot establish that replacement is financially justified.
First address safety, failure and comfort. Then compare complete installed scope, financing total, maintenance, expected service life and only verified incentives. Use CoolCompare's bill checker to organize measured bill evidence and the HVAC operating-cost tool to test user-controlled scenarios. Both are planning aids: neither knows the exact future tariff, equipment runtime or weather at an address, and neither converts EIA's national forecast into a local quote.
Sources and further reading
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