July Electricity Prices Show Why One National Average Cannot Price Your Home Project

The July national average rose, but the state spread is the bigger planning signal

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released July 2026 electricity data on September 24. Its preliminary Table 5.6.A reports an average residential price of 18.31 cents per kilowatthour for the United States, compared with 17.45 cents in July 2025—an increase of about 4.9%. The year-to-date residential average through July was 18.19 cents, up from 17.01 cents over the same 2025 period, or about 6.9%. These are measured average-revenue statistics from reported sales and revenue, not a forecast of the next bill.

The same July table shows why the national figure is too blunt for a project decision. State residential averages ranged from 12.72 cents per kWh in Louisiana to 48.00 cents in Hawaii. Applied mechanically to 1,000 kWh, those three published averages would equal $127.20 in Louisiana, $183.10 at the U.S. average and $480.00 in Hawaii. That arithmetic illustrates the geographic spread; it is not a bill estimate, ranking of utility offers or claim that every household in either state pays that amount.

An EIA average price is delivered revenue per kWh—not your utility tariff

EIA explains that its average retail electricity price includes delivered-electricity costs such as generation, transmission, distribution, taxes and fees, and is derived by dividing retail revenue by retail sales. EIA also states that these published prices are not utility rates. A household rate can depend on the provider, customer class, usage tier, season, time of use, demand charge, fixed customer charge, fuel adjustment, credits and local taxes.

Table 5.6.A is preliminary and based on a cutoff-model sample. Monthly values can also reflect weather, customer mix, usage and reporting changes. Do not label an EIA state average as the ‘electricity rate in your ZIP,’ the cheapest available plan or a current utility offer. For a home decision, preserve the state statistic as a dated external benchmark and keep the actual tariff and current bill as separate evidence.

Build three price inputs before accepting a savings or payback claim

First calculate a household all-in indicator from one complete billing cycle: total bill divided by billed kWh. Second record the applicable energy charge, delivery charges, fixed fees and time periods from the tariff or bill. Third use the dated EIA state and national averages only as broad comparison points. If the project will operate for years, add a clearly labeled higher-price sensitivity rather than assuming July 2026 will remain constant.

For example, a contractor's annual HVAC-cost estimate should disclose the equipment input, operating hours, weather or load assumption and electricity price used. A solar or battery proposal should separately disclose annual consumption, production, export compensation, fixed charges and degradation. A heat-pump comparison should also show the fuel being displaced. If changing only the electricity-price assumption reverses the decision, the proposal is sensitive and should be presented as a range rather than a promised saving.

Use the new data to challenge project math, not to trigger a purchase

The July update does not show that a specific air conditioner is inefficient, that solar will pay back by a certain date or that a household should replace working equipment. Start with actual kWh and same-month history, then check weather, occupancy, EV or pool loads, thermostat schedules, airflow, maintenance and envelope conditions. For high bills, diagnose the usage change before treating the price benchmark as the cause.

Use CoolCompare's Electric Bill Check to separate household usage and all-in cost from a state benchmark, then pass a documented rate into the HVAC running-cost calculator. Save the billing period, kWh, charges and source date with the result. CoolCompare calculations remain scenarios: they do not identify an address-level tariff, predict future rates, verify a retailer offer or replace the utility's current rate documents and a qualified project assessment.

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Sources and further reading

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